Sunday, November 4, 2012

Current State

Hello,

I have not been keeping up to date with my blog and I apologize for that! I moved to a different state and have been very busy lately but I have not forgotten about my blog entirely. I've picked up programming and web-development that I will use to integrate this blog into a website of its own sometime down the road. Hopefully sooner rather than later!

Anyways...

I have a lot I want to cover so I plan to touch on a lot of different topics here and then further analyze them in my other blogs.

First up: the election/politics.

Obama versus Romney; election 2012! It's riveting, it's thought-provoking, it's.... it's... boring? Lame? Yes! There I said it! This election is meh!

Why do I say that? Well thank you for asking and please allow me to elaborate!

In one corner of the political ring we have Obama. Sitting across from him lies Romney. Romney is terrible, Obama is pretty awesome. Done!

Ok, I will say more than just that.

Romney has become the top dog for the Republican party and what he say's and what he does speaks volumes for the party in its entirety; it doesn't matter how right or wrong he is in regards to his party representation.

I simply cannot fathom why anyone would support this guy. I don't care to understand either to be frank. There is no possible way a person could justify supporting him. Romney has flip-flopped more than John Kerry ever could. He has blatantly and consciously lied to the entire country... repeatedly! He is nonsensical, he is deceitful, and he is a bad planner.

During each of the three debates he failed to clarify his plans for the economy. He cannot tell anyone how his plan to balance the budget will work in the midst of the nations greatest economic organizations and councils saying "it's impossible", but he none the less expects the nation he can do it within a four year term during which he will lower taxes on the middle class, increase military spending [which is not necessary and not asked for by the military], and cut government "waste", again he cannot clarify and has not clarified what "wasteful spending" looks like.
Now cutting taxes to help balance a budget in the middle of a recession where the government finds itself in a deficit actually looks fairly smart from one angle. Why? Well consider this. If the middle-class has their taxes lowered they will have more money in their pockets every year. This alone does not solve anything because now we have to predict what households will do with their extra cash. Will they spend it purchasing goods and services? If they do, they will be creating demand which boosts the economy and can create more jobs and more wealth. It's called the "multiplier effect" and it's a very valid principle.
   But what if they don't spend that money? What if instead, households decide to save that extra cash and put it away in the bank? Well if I have an extra $100 in my wallet that I decide to put away in the bank, the bank will then have an extra $100 to invest. Assuming they use the full dollar amount of that $100 to invest they may or may not be helping the economy out. If it's in the form of stocks or bonds it's unlikely to do much for the economy, depending on the company. If it's a reinvestment in their own company where they add such things as physical, or even human capital, the result is economic growth. But banks are required to have a certain amount of cash stored in their vaults that can be easily accessed in case of an emergency, such as a sudden and dramatic increase in withdrawals made by customers. This is called the banks reserve. The reserve is considered to be money withdrawn from circulation and thus is not moving. It does not create jobs nor help support jobs. It's completely static.

But which choice are households most likely to make if Romney's middle-class tax plan came into effect say, next year? It is likely that households would decide to save that extra cash as opposed to spending it. It's called the principle of thrift. Households saving cash in anticipation of future economic hardship. We are still in a recession and money is still relatively scarce for most folks so it's highly probable that most people would choose to save their money rather than buy a new TV or computer.

So Romney's plan is completely contingent not only on the hope that Americans would spend that extra cash, but also on ignorance. Personally, if I had an extra $1,000 at the end of the year I would save it. Same with $10,000. Unless I had an extra amount of cash coming to me in the amount of $100,000, I don't think I would spend much, if any of it.

This is a partial debunkment of Romney's plan. I say partial because I am assuming a lot of things here based upon the most probable theories. In other words; educated guesses. Krugman, Reich, and others have the computational models to back it up.

But it's not just his incredible lack of knowledge of even the most basic economic concepts. It's also his personality. He seems to want to win so bad that he's willing to flip-flop and change his mind on anything that he's ever said just to get the attention of more people. It's also his lies. I can't stand his incessant ability to lie without remorse to more than 300 million Americans repeatedly. Whatever moral grounds Republicans had is long gone. If their leading representative is also a repeatedly dishonest man I feel that say's more than enough about the party.

But this leads me to digress...

On to the politics of politics!

I've been watching a lot of Neil de Grasse Tyson clips on Youtube and came across one in particular where he goes on an epic rant against politicians.

I will summarize it here:
What are the backgrounds of politicians? The senators, representatives, governors, congressman/women? The overwhelming majority, ~80-85% studied law.
What is law?
Basically, it's arguing. It's about who can be more persuasive. That's what lawyers do right?

So we have a political base that is made up of lawyers or would be lawyers who were trained to argue. Hmmm, does something smell bad here? Maybe that's why bills and legislation moves so slow. Maybe that's why the nation has such a hard time recovering and moving forward. Our politicians are not focused on facts and whats best, but merely arguing with one another.

Now envision a congress that was filled with politicians whose backgrounds were in engineering, math, and the sciences. Where reason, logic, and honesty filled the room like a sweet smoke. Say hello to mars, to distant galaxies, to new technologies, and wealth. No wars, no deficit, no hate. Just simply logic taking hold and leading the nation to new heights. That's an America that would make all men and women jealous!

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